Forecast of China's PV application system with GM(1,1) model

被引：0

作者：

Guan, Yeqing ^{[1
]}

Li, Zhaolai ^{[1
]}

Zhu, Wenqing ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Nanjing Univ Aeronaut & Astronaut, Coll Econ & Management, Nanjing 210016, Peoples R China

来源：

PROGRESS IN RENEWABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, PTS 1 AND 2 | 2013年 / 608-609卷

关键词：

PV systems; installed capacity; GM (1,1); prediction;

D O I：

10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.608-609.51

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

Based on China's Photo Voltaic Energy Application Status Analysis, the paper forecast and analyzed photo voltaic applications installed capacity by combining the grey GM (1, 1) model with the second-order weakening buffer operator. The results of the forecast showed that the annual growth rate of total installed capacity of PV applications is 17.4% during "The 12th Five-Year Plan", to reach 14829.55 MW which can achieve the basic planning objectives by 2015. The future of renewable energy accounting for the proportion of energy consumption will become increasingly large. Judging from the forecast results, due to the PV Application market uncertainties highlight, the Government should continue to promote technical progress, improve energy efficiency, in order to better promote the development of PV Application market.

引用

页码：51 / 56

页数：6

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