Demand Forecasting of Emergency Medicines after the Massive Earthquake -A Grey Discrete Verhulst Model Approach

At the beginning of earthquake, accurate and quick demand forecasting of emergency medicines can optimize the social and medical resource. In this paper, the Grey Discrete Verhulst Model, opposed to the previous forecasting methods, help us to efficiently predict numbers of diseases and wounded in a very short time, i.e. an "S-shape" curve for the numbers of diseases and wounded Then, considering a linear relationship between the emergency medicines used and numbers of diseases and wounded, the demand of emergency medicines can be predicted Empirically, we simulate efficiently the demand of emergency medicines of Yushu and Lushan earthquake in China with different Grey Models. In brief our results show a new and helpful exploration in both theoretical and empiric field of the demand forecasting of emergency medicines in emergency rescues.