The accuracy of the Conference Board's buying plans index: A comparison of judgmental vs. extrapolation forecasting methods

被引：5

作者：

Lee, MS ^{[1
]}

Elango, B ^{[1
]}

Schnaars, SP ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] BARUCH COLL,DEPT MANAGEMENT,NEW YORK,NY 10010

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1997年 / 13卷 / 01期

关键词：

buying intentions; forecasting; naive approach; six-month moving average; mean absolute percentage error (MAPE);

D O I：

10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00711-X

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper compares the Conference Board's buying intentions for consumer durable goods with forecasts constructed using simple time-series extrapolation over 177 months. The results show that simple time-series extrapolations provide more accurate forecasts than the judgmental approach. Very little support is found for using buying intentions as a forecasting tool for predicting the sales of durable goods.

引用

页码：127 / 135

页数：9

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