Effect of observation errors on the uncertainty of design floods

被引：38

作者：

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano ^{[1
]}

Laio, Francesco ^{[2
]}

Montanari, Alberto ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educat, Dept Hydroinformat & Knowledge Management, NL-2601 Delft, Netherlands

[2] Politecn Torino, Dipartimento Idraul Trasporti & Infrastrutture, Turin, Italy

[3] Univ Studi Bologna, Dipartimento Ingn Civile Ambientale & Mat, Bologna, Italy

来源：

PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH | 2012年 / 42-44卷

关键词：

Statistical hydrology; Design flood; Observation uncertainty; Rating curve; Flood risk; DISCHARGE MEASUREMENT ERROR; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.pce.2011.05.001

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

This study investigates the uncertainty in the estimation of the design flood induced by errors in flood data. We initially describe and critically discuss the main sources of uncertainty affecting river discharge data, when they are derived using stage-discharge rating curves. Then, different error structures are used to investigate the effects of flood data errors on design flood estimation. Annual maxima values of river discharge observed on the Po River (Italy) at Pontelagoscuro are used as an example. The study demonstrates that observation errors may have a significant impact on the uncertainty of design floods, especially when the rating curve is affected by systematic errors. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：85 / 90

页数：6

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