Predicting tumor recurrence using metabolic indices of 18F-FDG PET/CT prior to orthotopic liver transplantationfor hepatocellular carcinoma

The present study analyzed the ability of metabolic burden indices from F-18-fluorodeoxyglucose (F-18-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) to predict tumor recurrence following orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Seven major metabolic indices were measured by F-18-FDG PET/CT in 93 patients with HCC, prior to OLT. The Mann-Whitney U test was then used to predict the association of metabolic indices, including the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), tumor-to-mediastinum SUV ratio, tumor-to-normal-liver SUV ratio, SUV normalized to lean body mass metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and uptake-volume product (UVP), with the recurrence risk. The Deauville-like scoring system was used to quantify the recurrence risk. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression models were performed to determine survival rate. The results showed that Deauville-like score (PET-negative vs. -positive), MTV (cutoff value, 13.36), TLG (cutoff value, 62.21) and UVP (cutoff value, 66.60) had high prediction performance for tumor recurrence (P<0.05). TLG had the highest receiver operating characteristics area under the curve of 0.725. Among the clinical factors, high level of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP, >= 144 ng/ml), Milan criteria, tumor number (>3), involvement of both right and left lobes, and tumor size (>5 cm) were found to be significant predictors of tumor recurrence. Patients in the low metabolic group had longer recurrence-free survival (RFS) times compared with those in the high metabolic group, regardless of whether they met the Milan criteria or not. AFP, uptake-volume product according the SUV mean of mediastinum (UVP-M), Milan criteria, lymph node metastasis, and the number of tumors were significant prognostic factors for RFS (P<0.05) in both univariate and multivariate survival analyses. Additionally, the MVI was a significant prognostic factor based on univariate survival analyses. Overall, the present study demonstrated the metabolic burden indices measured by PET/CT, Deauville-like score, MTV, TLG and UVP as significant prognostic factors in patients with HCC following OLT. The combination of metabolic indices measured by PET/CT and the existing criteria, such as the Milan criteria, may play an important role in evaluating the suitability of OLT in specific patients.