Identification methods for nonlinear stochastic systems

Model identifications based on orbit tracking methods are here extended to stochastic differential equations. In the present approach, deterministic and statistical features are introduced via the time evolution of ensemble averages and variances. The aforementioned quantities are shown to follow deterministic equations, which are explicitly written within a linear as well as a weakly nonlinear approximation. Based on such equations and the observed time series, a cost function is defined. Its minimization by simulated annealing or backpropagation algorithms then yields a set of best-fit parameters. This procedure is successfully applied for various sampling time intervals, on a stochastic Lorenz system.