Forecasting The Number of Patients at RSUD Sukoharjo Using Double Exponential Smoothing Holt

There is a severe queues of the outpatients of the Sukoharjo public hospital (RSUD Sukoharjo) due to the limited resources to handling the increasing number of BPJS patients. Good decision-making is needed to solve this problem. Management of the hospital needs a tool to make a right decision. They need support like a predicting data particularly in predicting the number of the patients in the next period as a consideration to make a decision. For that reason, we develop an application for forecasting the number of patients and their attributes in the future using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Holt method. In this method, an initial value of smoothing is determined through four different methods. This study aims to examine the accuracy of forecasting using DES Holt. The accuracy is measured using three methods namely MAE, MSE and MAPE. The result shows that the fourth method has the smallest error for MAE, MSE and also MAPE. Meanwhile, the prediction error which is measured using MAPE shows the lowest value when we use the second approach. Overall, the error value of the forecasting result using all approach of DES Holt are less than 10%. Therefore based on the standard, it can be stated that the forecasting result for the number of patients in various attribute using DES Holt is highly accurate.