Focused sun's rays and forest fire danger: new concept

Estimation of forest fire danger has traditionally been based on historical fire weather climatology. This presentation describes a new concept for an improved estimation of forest fire danger, which takes into account the possibility of forest fuel ignition as a result of focused sun's light. For example, glass containers, their splinters and large drops of coniferous trees pitch can be a fire hazard due to their potential for focusing the sun's rays (under favorable conditions) and, consequently for setting forest fuel ablaze. Our analysis of numerous observational reports suggests that the forest fuel ignition process can be described by system of the non-stationary nonlinear equations of heat conductivity and diffusion with corresponding initial and boundary conditions. To solve these equations, we apply well-established numerical methods. This presentation includes model results and their comparison with available observational constrains together with suggestions for using remote sensing data.