Spatial Autoregressive Model of Commodity Housing Price and Empirical Research

Based on spatial econometric model, the article selects the panel data of eight cities around Beijing from 1998 to 2009. It tests whether there is spatial dependence among cities on commodity housing price. The main influence factors of the housing price are further analyzed. Finally, the housing prices of the 8 cities are tested by the Granger. The results show that there is significant spatial dependence between cities on the housing price. The factors that affect the commodity housing price include spatial factor, urban residents' disposable income factor, population factor, land price factor and living space factor. Granger test shows that there is one-way relationship of Beijing to Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Shenyang, Changchun and Jinan. The conclusions establish the theoretical foundation for the formation mechanism of the housing price and offer references for engineering project pricing in real estate and government macro regulation. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B. V. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the Organising Committee of The International Conference of Risk and Engineering Management.