Grey forecasting model for CO2 emissions

CO2 is the most frequently implicated in global warming among the various greenhouse gases associated with climate change. Chinese government has been taking serious measures to control energy consumption to reduce CO2 emissions. This study applies the grey forecasting model to estimate future CO2 emissions and carbon intensity in Shijiazhuang from 2010 until 2020. Forecasts of CO2 emissions in this study show that the average residual error of the GM(1, 1) is below 1.5%. The average increasing rate of CO2 emissions will be about 6.71%; and the carbon intensity will be 2.10 tons/10(4)GDP until year 2020. If the GDP of Shijiazhuang city can be quadruple, the carbon intensity will be half to the 2005 levels until 2020. The findings of this study provide a valuable reference with which the Shijiazhuang government can formulate measures to reduce CO2 emissions by curbing the unnecessary the consumption of energy.