Identifying future trends in information technology

Few information technology trends have received more attention from the industry than electronic (e-) commerce - and considering the industry's predisposition to hyperbole, that is saying a lot. This paper discusses the diffusion of e-commerce in three wave-migration phases from current computer communications. From an ontological perspective at the meta level, this paper explains why e-commerce may have a greater impact on exchanging information and optimizing existing business processes than on generating funds flow. In evaluating the nature of e-commerce applications, it is proposed that e-commerce will replace the traditional inventory-based model with an information-based model and the basis of competition will shift from companies with strong distribution systems to those with strong information systems. This might help explain the predictions of triple-digit e-commerce market growth and stock valuations of Internet companies that defy fundamentals.