Thalamic morphology predicts the onset of freezing of gait in Parkinson's disease

The onset of freezing of gait (FOG) in Parkinson's disease (PD) is a critical milestone, marked by a higher risk of falls and reduced quality of life. FOG is associated with alterations in subcortical neural circuits, yet no study has assessed whether subcortical morphology can predict the onset of clinical FOG. In this prospective multimodal neuroimaging cohort study, we performed vertex-based analysis of grey matter morphology in fifty-seven individuals with PD at study entry and two years later. We also explored the behavioral correlates and resting-state functional connectivity related to these local volume differences. At study entry, we found that freezers (N = 12) and persons who developed FOG during the course of the study (converters) (N = 9) showed local inflations in bilateral thalamus in contrast to persons who did not (non-converters) (N = 36). Longitudinally, converters (N = 7) also showed local inflation in the left thalamus, as compared to non-converters (N = 36). A model including sex, daily levodopa equivalent dose, and local thalamic inflation predicted conversion with good accuracy (AUC: 0.87, sensitivity: 88.9%, specificity: 77.8%). Exploratory analyses showed that local thalamic inflations were associated with larger medial thalamic sub-nuclei volumes and better cognitive performance. Resting-state analyses further revealed that converters had stronger thalamo-cortical coupling with limbic and cognitive regions pre-conversion, with a marked reduction in coupling over the two years. Finally, validation using the PPMI cohort suggested FOG-specific non-linear evolution of thalamic local volume. These findings provide markers of, and deeper insights into conversion to FOG, which may foster earlier intervention and better mobility for persons with PD.