The propagation of liquidity imbalances in manufacturing supply chains: evidence from a spatial auto-regressive approach

The number of distressed firms increased sharply during the last recessionary phase. The scope of the paper is to analyze determinants of distress by focusing the attention on trade-credit chains as the key source of contagion effects in 2009-2013. Financial and liquidity imbalances propagate along the supply chain: firms respond to late payments from customers by defaulting on payments to suppliers. The novelty of our approach consists of applying spatial econometric techniques to assess spillover effects of trade debt. We employ a representative sample of around 12,000 Italian manufacturing firms that combines balance sheet items with information collected in the Credit Register of the Italian central bank. Our proxy for supply-chain interconnections is a matrix of firm-to firm transactions which mirrors the networked structure of the industrial system. Estimates show that trade debt has been affected by spillover effects during the great crisis of 2009-2013. Moreover, trade debt and financial indebtedness exerted an impact of almost identical magnitude on firms' distress likelihoods. This evidence sheds light on the importance to move away from a static view of the trade-credit phenomenon, and to integrate solvency models with detailed information on firm-to-firm transactions which is increasingly available through big data collection.