Eruptive scenarios of phonolitic volcanism at Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

Recent studies on Teide-Pico Viejo (TPV) complex have revealed that explosive activity of phonolitic and basaltic magmas, including plinian and subplinian eruptions, and the generation of a wide range of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have also been significant. We perform a statistical analysis of the time series of past eruptions and the spatial extent of their erupted products, including lava flows, fallout and PDCs. We use an extreme value theory statistical method to calculate eruption recurrence. The analysis of past activity and extent of some well-identified deposits is used to calculate the eruption recurrence probabilities of various sizes and for different time periods. With this information, we compute several significant scenarios using the GIS-based VORIS 2 software (Felpeto et al., J Volcanol Geotherm Res 166:106-116, 2007) in order to evaluate the potential extent of the main eruption hazards that could be expected from TPV. The simulated hazard scenarios show that the southern flank of Tenerife is protected by Las Caadas caldera wall against lava flows and pyroclastic density currents, but not against ash fallout. The Icod Valley, and to a minor extent also the La Orotava valley, is directly exposed to most of TPV hazards, in particular to the gravity driven flows. This study represents a step forward in the evaluation of volcanic hazard at TPV with regard to previous studies, and the results obtained should be useful for intermediate and long-term land-use and emergency planning.