An unconditional space-time scan statistic for ZIP-distributed data

被引:2
|
作者
Allevius, Benjamin [1 ]
Hohle, Michael [1 ]
机构
[1] Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
基金
瑞典研究理事会;
关键词
disease surveillance; EM algorithm; scan statistic; spatiotemporal; zero-inflated poisson; CRITICAL-LOOK; REGRESSION; LIKELIHOOD; MODELS;
D O I
10.1111/sjos.12341
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
A scan statistic is proposed for the prospective monitoring of spatiotemporal count data with an excess of zeros. The method that is based on an outbreak model for the zero-inflated Poisson distribution is shown to be superior to traditional scan statistics based on the Poisson distribution in the presence of structural zeros. The spatial accuracy and the detection timeliness of the proposed scan statistic are investigated by means of simulation, and an application on the weekly cases of Campylobacteriosis in Germany illustrates how the scan statistic could be used to detect emerging disease outbreaks. An implementation of the method is provided in the open-source R package scanstatistics available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.
引用
收藏
页码:142 / 159
页数:18
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