Early tracking, academic vs. vocational training, and the value of 'second-chance' options

This paper estimates a dynamic heterogenous reatment effects model to examine educational transitions and expected returns in the German education system which is characterized by pronounced early tracking but with options to revise track choices at later stages. We study the value of such options and the extent to which they correct initial 'misplacement'. We find that the value of second-chance options is large but heterogenous. They are more valuable for high-ability individuals and individuals from better parental backgrounds who are better able to exploit the possibilities opened up by them at later stages of the system. Our findings suggest that second-chance options correct earlier "misplacement" only to a moderate extent.