Assessing climate change effect in offshore wind power in the North of Portugal

An evaluation is made of the possible changes in available wind power potential under climate change conditions using high resolution wind data extracted for the pilot zone of Agucadora at the northern Portuguese coast. Wind data produced in the framework of EURO-CORDEX, using two of the latest emission scenarios defined by the IPCC AR5 assessment, is used. Model performance is evaluated comparing 10 meters wind statistics for a 26 years period from both the evaluation and the historical integrations. Wind power density is computed for five sets of 30 years representing the present climate, the near future and the mid 21st century in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Differences between the different climate integrations are investigated. The annual percentage of operating time of a wind turbine, in the two climate scenarios, is assessed as well as the frequency of occurrence of wind, leading to wind power density belonging to wind power classes suitable for wind power development. Changes from present to future climate scenarios are investigated, but, only a small decrease in the available wind energy, mainly due to a lower occurrence of high wind power class events, is found.