Follow-up of an age-period-cohort analysis on alcohol-related mortality trends in Sweden 1970-2015 with predictions to 2025

Background and aims: Several studies have indicated that birth cohorts are important in explaining trends in alcohol-related mortality. An earlier study from Sweden with data up to 2002 showed that birth cohorts that grew up under periods of more liberal alcohol policies had higher alcohol-related mortality than those cohorts growing up under more restrictive time periods. In spite of increasing alcohol consumption, predictions in 2002 also indicated lower alcohol-related mortality in the future. The aim of this study is to follow-up whether the effects of birth cohorts and the predictions made for Sweden still holds using data up to 2015. Method: The study comprised an age-period-cohort analysis and predictions based on population predictions from Statistics Sweden. The analysis was based on all alcohol-related deaths in the Swedish population between 1969 and 2015 for the cohorts born in the decades 1920 through 1990. Data were restricted to people 15-84 years of age. In total, the analysis covered 68,341 deaths and more than 284 million person-years. Results: Male and female cohorts born in the 1940s to 1950s exhibited the highest alcohol-related mortality, while those born in the 1970s continued to have the lowest alcohol-related mortality rates. The predicted mortality rates for males are still anticipated to decrease somewhat through 2025. Conclusions: The updated age-period-cohort analysis further supports the importance of focusing on restrictive alcohol policies targeting adolescents.