Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences

被引：38

作者：

Alessi, Lucia ^{[1
]}

Ghysels, Eric ^{[2
,3
]}

Onorante, Luca ^{[1
,4
]}

Peach, Richard ^{[5
]}

Potter, Simon ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] European Cent Bank, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany

[2] Univ N Carolina, Kenan Flagler Business Sch, Dept Finance, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA

[3] Univ N Carolina, Dept Econ, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA

[4] Cent Bank Ireland, Joint Modeling Project, Dublin, Ireland

[5] Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA

[6] Fed Reserve Bank New York, Markets Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS | 2014年 / 32卷 / 04期

关键词：

MIDAS regressions; Forecast evaluation; Central bank macroeconomic forecasting; SHORT-TERM FORECASTS; MONETARY-POLICY; OUTPUT GROWTH; FACTOR MODEL; GDP GROWTH; DSGE MODEL; AREA; MIDAS; PERFORMANCE;

D O I：

10.1080/07350015.2014.959124

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This article documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The article is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not exclusively focus on point forecast performance. It also examines methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.

引用

页码：483 / 500

页数：18

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