Predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the death of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. All clinical and laboratory parameters were collected prospectively from a cohort of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who were hospitalised to Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China) between 25 December 2019 and 7 February 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the relationship between each variable and the risk of death of COVID-19 pneumonia patients. In total, 179 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia (97 male and 82 female) were included in the present prospective study, of whom 21 died. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age 65 years (OR 3.765, 95% CI 1.201-11.803; p=0.023), pre-existing concurrent cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases (OR 2.464, 95% CI 1.279-4.747; p=0.007), CD3+CD8+ T-cells 75 cells μL-1 (OR 3.982, 95% CI 1.761-9.004; p<0.001) and cardiac troponin I 0.05 ng mL-1 (OR 4.077, 95% CI 1.778- 9.349; p<0.001) were associated with an increase in risk of mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia. In a sex-, age- and comorbid illness-matched case-control study, CD3+CD8+ T-cells 75 cells μL-1 and cardiac troponin I 0.05 ng mL-1 remained as predictors for high mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia. We identified four risk factors: Age 65 years, pre-existing concurrent cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases, CD3+CD8+ T-cells 75 cells μL-1 and cardiac troponin I 0.05 ng mL-1. The latter two factors, especially, were predictors for mortality of COVID-19 pneumonia patients. ©ERS 2020.