STRATEGIES FOR A LOW-CARBON FOOD SYSTEM IN CHINA

In China, there has been insufficient study of whole food system greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, which limits the development of mitigation strategies and may preclude the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The paper presents the development of a carbon extension of NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chain, Environment and Resources use model), a food system GHG emission accounting model that covers land use and land-use change, agricultural production, and post-production subsectors. The spatiotemporal characteristics of GHG emissions were investigated for the Chinese food system (CFS) from 1992 to 2017, with a focus on GHG emissions from the entire system. The potential to achieve a low-carbon food system in China was explored. The net GHG emissions from the CFS increased from 785 Tg CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) in 1992 to 1080 Tg CO2-eq in 2017. Agricultural activities accounted for more than half of the total emissions during the study period, while agricultural energy was the largest contributor to the GHG increase. In 2017, highest emitting regions were located in central and southern China (Guangdong and Hunan), the North China Plain (Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu) and Northeast China (Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia) and contributed to over half of the total GHG emissions. Meanwhile, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet are shown as carbon sink areas. It was found that food -system GHG emissions could be reduced to 355 Tg CO2-eq, where enhancing endpoint mitigation technologies, transforming social-economic and diet conditions, and increasing agricultural productivities can contribute to 60%, 25% and 15%, respectively. Synergistic mitigation effects were found to exist in agricultural activities.