Identifying conservation priority areas and predicting the climate change impact on the future habitats of endangered Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. utilizing ecological niche modelling

被引：5

作者：

Konwar, Parthapratim ^{[1
,2
]}

Das, Bikas ^{[1
,2
]}

Saikia, Jadumoni ^{[1
,2
]}

Borah, Twinkle ^{[1
,2
]}

Washmin, Nooreen ^{[1
,2
]}

Siga, Appu ^{[1
]}

Kumar, Amit ^{[1
,2
]}

Banik, Dipanwita ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] CSIR North East Inst Sci & Technol, Agrotechnol & Rural Dev Div, Jorhat 785006, Assam, India

[2] Acad Sci & Innovat Res AcSIR, Ghaziabad 201002, India

来源：

JOURNAL FOR NATURE CONSERVATION | 2023年 / 74卷

关键词：

Conservation; ENM; Nepenthes khasiana; Habitat suitability; Threatened plants; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; INSECTIVOROUS PLANT; DISTRIBUTIONS; MEGHALAYA; RARE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126436

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

Developing strategies for effective species conservation is necessary to counter the ever-fluctuating environmental conditions with increasing anthropogenic activities. Studies have proven Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) as an effective tool for sustainable conservation. Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. is an endangered pitcher plant facing a constant decline in population due to anthropogenic activities. This study aimed to locate the most suitable areas for re-establishing the species in natural habitats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, and to forecast the effects of current and future climate conditions on its distribution throughout Northeast India. The potential suitable areas in future climate under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and in the current climate were predicted utilizing the 30 occurrence data, bioclimatic predictors, and variables from BCC-CSM1.1 model and WorldClim respectively. The results of the current study showed significant relationships among annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, seasonality of precipitation, annual range iso-thermality of temperature, mean diurnal range [Mean of monthly (max temp -min temp)], and the distribution of the analysed species. The optimum model performance was represented by the AUC value of 0.972 & PLUSMN; 0.007. The model predicted 10.70% of the NE Indian region as climatically suitable, which will expand under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, reaching 15.35%, and 12.64%, respectively. However, this may degrade significantly under RCP8.5, reducing to 8.14%. Based on the analysis of modelling results it was found that the Nokrek belt and the Khasi hills as highly suitable regions for the reintroduction of the species. The study revalidated ENM as an effective means to identify new populations and predict the influence of climate change on the future habitat which can benefit the concurrent species management strategies.

引用

页数：10