Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Ecosystem Service Assessments in Spatial and Sectoral Planning

In this paper, we critically reflect on the ability of spatial and sectoral planning approaches to deal with regional climate change, especially sea level rise, and analyze the potential of ecosystem service assessments in regional coastal climate change adaptation planning. We present two concrete but contrasting case studies that focus on coastal realignment and wetland restoration as well as seaside tourism and resort development on the German Baltic Sea coast. The ecosystem service assessments compare past, present and potential future local development scenarios. Complementary, we apply the InVest and the Matrix ecosystem service assessment approaches. Despite some shortcomings, the proactive German hierarchical planning system seems suitable to deal with climate change and provide a framework for adaptation measures in coastal zones. It largely prevents a shift of climate change risks between municipalities and stakeholders. Comparative ecosystem service assessments seem well suited to play a role in the planning process by raising awareness about problems, possible solutions and consequences. On a local level, they can provide comprehensive insight into consequences of alternative measures. Our examples show that, in principle, potential future situations can be addressed with comparative ecosystem service approaches. We discuss whether the results of hypothetical future scenarios, with inherent uncertainties, might be misleading and counterproductive.