Predicting Sub-Forest Type Transition Characteristics Using Canopy Density: An Analysis of the Ganjiang River Basin Case Study

In the process of societal development, forest land categories often conflict with other land use types, leading to impacts on the ecological environment. Therefore, research on changes in forest land categories has increasingly become a globally focused topic. To anticipate potential forest ecological security issues under urbanization trends, studies on regional land use simulation become more important. This paper, based on land use data from the Ganjiang River basin, analyzes the distribution characteristics and changing trends of land use types from 2000 to 2020. Using the CA-Markov model, it predicts the land use pattern of the basin in 2040 and analyzes the transfer characteristics of forest land categories. The conclusions indicate that, between 2000 and 2020, the most significant trend in land use evolution was the transfer between various subcategories of forest land, especially frequent in the high-altitude mountainous areas in the southern and western parts of the basin. The land use pattern prediction model constructed in this paper has a kappa index of 0.92, indicating high accuracy and reliability of the predictions. In 2040, the most significant land evolution phenomenon would be from forest land to arable land to construction land, particularly pronounced around large cities. Over the next 20 years, the focus of land use evolution may shift from the southern part of the basin to the central and northern parts, with urban expansion possibly becoming the main driving force of land use changes during this period. Forest land restoration work is an effective method to compensate for the loss of forest land area in the Ganjiang River basin, with key areas for such work including Longnan, Yudu, Xingguo, Ningdu, Lianhua, and Yongxin counties.