Fighting vacation rental tax evasion through warnings to potential evaders

This paper uses differences-in-differences to analyze the effectiveness of messages sent by the Spanish Tax Agency to deter tax evasion by owners of vacation rentals. The results suggest that these messages were effective in the aggregate, as there was an increase both in the declared amount of such income (6-8.5%, depending on the line item under which it is declared) and in the number of filers (29.7-64.2%), and this effectiveness became more marked over time. Notably, there was more response to the intervention from the self-employed. However, in some collectives, the intervention produced the opposite of the intended effect.