The Coupling Coordination and Influencing Factors of Urbanization and Ecological Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Twenty-six cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were taken as the research object, and this study comprehensively evaluated urbanization quality and ecological resilience from 2005 to 2020. On this basis, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and main influencing factors of the coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological resilience were systematically explored using a coupling coordination model and panel Tobit regression model. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) from 2005 to 2020, the quality of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration continued to grow, the level of ecological resilience grew slowly and fluctuated, and the development among municipalities tended to be balanced. (2) The overall coupling coordination degree of urbanization and ecological resilience showed a continuous increasing trend, and the coupling coordination type changed from basic coupling coordination to good coupling coordination. The number of cities with lagging urbanization quality decreased significantly; spatially, the gap in the coupling coordination degree between municipalities narrowed, and the cities with good coupling gradually clustered. (3) The results of the panel Tobit regression showed that the differences in the spatial evolution of coupling coordination mainly resulted from the interaction of drivers such as real utilized foreign capital, per capita GDP, carbon emission intensity, the proportion of science and technology expenditure to fiscal expenditure, the ratio of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents, fixed asset investment in municipal utility construction, and the index of ecological land area ratio. In the future, the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and ecological resilience should be improved based on the type of coupling coordination according to local conditions, and the seven influencing factors should be carefully examined to accelerate the high-quality integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta.