A Risk Score for Predicting the Necessity of Surgical Necrosectomy in the Treatment of Infected Necrotizing Pancreatitis

Background For infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP), percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) is now widely acknowledged as the initial intervention in a step-up approach, followed, if necessary, by minimally invasive necrosectomy or even open pancreatic necrosectomy. However, an overemphasis on PCD may cause a patient's condition to deteriorate, leading to missed surgical opportunities or even death. This study aimed to develop a simple and convenient scoring tool for assessing the need for surgery in INP patients who received PCD procedures. Methods In an observational study conducted between April 2015 and December 2020, PCD was utilized as the initial step to treat 143 consecutive INP patients. A surgical necrosectomy was performed when the patient failed to respond. Risk factors of PCD failure (i.e., need for surgical necrosectomy) were identified by multivariate logistic regression models. An integer-based risk scoring tool was developed using the beta coefficients derived from the logistic regression model. Results In 62 (43.4%) patients, PCD was successful, while the remaining 81 (56.6%) individuals required subsequent surgical necrosectomy. In the multivariate model, organ failure, percentage of pancreatic necrosis, extrapancreatic necrosis volume, and mean CT density of extrapancreatic necrosis volume were associated with a need for surgical necrosectomy. A predictive scoring tool based on these four factors demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.893. Under the scoring tool, a total score of 4 or more indicates a high possibility of surgical necrosectomy being required (at least 80%). Using the coordinates of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the sensitivity and specificity at this threshold are 0.802 and 0.903, respectively. Conclusions A risk score model integrating organ failure, percentage of pancreatic necrosis, extrapancreatic necrosis volume, and mean CT density of extrapancreatic necrosis volume can identify INP patients at high risk for necrosectomy. The straightforward risk assessment tool assists clinicians in stratifying INP patients and making more judicious medical decisions.