Limited clinical utility of a machine learning revision prediction model based on a national hip arthroscopy registry

Purpose Accurate prediction of outcome following hip arthroscopy is challenging and machine learning has the potential to improve our predictive capability. The purpose of this study was to determine if machine learning analysis of the Danish Hip Arthroscopy Registry (DHAR) can develop a clinically meaningful calculator for predicting the probability of a patient undergoing subsequent revision surgery following primary hip arthroscopy. Methods Machine learning analysis was performed on the DHAR. The primary outcome for the models was probability of revision hip arthroscopy within 1, 2, and/or 5 years after primary hip arthroscopy. Data were split randomly into training (75%) and test (25%) sets. Four models intended for these types of data were tested: Cox elastic net, random survival forest, gradient boosted regression (GBM), and super learner. These four models represent a range of approaches to statistical details like variable selection and model complexity. Model performance was assessed by calculating calibration and area under the curve (AUC). Analysis was performed using only variables available in the pre-operative clinical setting and then repeated to compare model performance using all variables available in the registry. Results In total, 5581 patients were included for analysis. Average follow-up time or time-to-revision was 4.25 years (+/- 2.51) years and overall revision rate was 11%. All four models were generally well calibrated and demonstrated concordance in the moderate range when restricted to only pre-operative variables (0.62-0.67), and when considering all variables available in the registry (0.63-0.66). The 95% confidence intervals for model concordance were wide for both analyses, ranging from a low of 0.53 to a high of 0.75, indicating uncertainty about the true accuracy of the models. Conclusion The association between pre-surgical factors and outcome following hip arthroscopy is complex. Machine learning analysis of the DHAR produced a model capable of predicting revision surgery risk following primary hip arthroscopy that demonstrated moderate accuracy but likely limited clinical usefulness. Prediction accuracy would benefit from enhanced data quality within the registry and this preliminary study holds promise for future model generation as the DHAR matures. Ongoing collection of high-quality data by the DHAR should enable improved patient-specific outcome prediction that is generalisable across the population.