Foresight science in conservation: Tools, barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

被引:4
|
作者
Ednie, Gabrielle [1 ]
Kapoor, Tyreen [2 ]
Koppel, Olga [3 ]
Piczak, Morgan L. [2 ]
Reid, Jessica L. [2 ]
Murdoch, Alyssa D. [2 ,4 ]
Cook, Carly N. [5 ]
Sutherland, William J. [6 ,7 ]
Cooke, Steven J. [2 ,8 ]
机构
[1] Univ Ottawa, Biol Dept, 75 Laurier Ave E, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
[2] Carleton Univ, Biol Dept, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
[3] Univ Ottawa, Biol Dept, Laurier Ave E, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
[4] Wildlife Conservat Soc Canada, 169 Titanium Way, Whitehorse, YT Y1A 0E9, Canada
[5] Monash Univ, Sch Biol Sci, Melbourne, Vic 3800, Australia
[6] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, David Attenborough Bldg,Pembroke St, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, England
[7] Univ Cambridge, Biosecur Res Initiat St Catharines BioRISC, St Catharines Coll, Cambridge CB2 1RL, England
[8] Carleton Univ, Inst Environm & Interdisciplinary Sci, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
Anthropocene; Decision-making; Environmental planning; Futures research; Strategic foresight; CLIMATE-CHANGE; STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS; STRATEGIC FORESIGHT; ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE; FUTURE; TECHNOLOGY; RIVER;
D O I
10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.
引用
收藏
页码:411 / 424
页数:14
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