Latin America's Renewable Energy Impact: Climate Change and Global Economic Consequences

In the context of the imperative global shift towards renewable energy to mitigate climate change, Latin America (LATAM) emerges as a region of immense untapped potential. However, there is no formal quantification of the effects of developing this potential. This study analyzes the economic and climate impacts of developing renewable energy in LATAM and the Asia-Pacific region using an integrated economic and climate assessment model (IAM). The key findings are as follows. First, exporting renewable energy from LATAM and the Asia-Pacific region yields economic benefits across all regions. However, this surge in renewable energy exacerbates rather than alleviates global warming. Second, the implementation of policy measures accompanying renewable energy exports, aimed at discouraging the use of polluting energy sources, proves effective in mitigating global warming while sustaining significant economic gains globally. Third, LATAM stands to gain substantially from this development. Fourth, due to the gradual process of capital accumulation, any delays in initiating the development of renewable energy exports not only diminish economic gains during the postponement but also in the years following the commencement of exports. These results are robust to several additional simulations and sensitivity analyses. The results align with the goals of the Paris Agreement.