Replicating the discovery, scrutiny, and decline model of media coverage in presidential primaries

Media coverage has long been thought crucial to shaping the electoral fortunes of presidential primary candidates in the post-reform era, making how the media allot coverage a topic of paramount importance. Sides and Vavreck (2013. The Gamble: Choice and Change in the 2012 Presidential Election. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press) make a notable contribution to the study of media coverage in primaries with their "discovery, scrutiny, and decline" (DSD) model. This model, based on the 2012 Republican primary, suggests that the media's preference for novelty leads to a cyclical identification of new and interesting candidates, a surge in coverage of that candidate, and a culminating drop of coverage back to baseline levels. But the generalizability of the DSD model beyond the 2012 GOP primary has not yet been thoroughly tested. This paper conducts such a test using the Presidential Primary Communication Corpus (PPCC) which contains news stories by The New York Times and the Washington Post of each candidate in the nine primaries from 2000 to 2020. The evidence is most supportive of the DSD model in the 2008 and 2012 Republican primaries and the 2004 and 2020 Democratic primaries but less supportive in the remaining five. This paper concludes with a discussion of why some campaigns don't match the DSD model's expectations.