Spatial-Temporal Evolution Pattern and Prediction Analysis of Rainfall Erosivity (1950-2020) in the Tibetan Plateau

Analysing the temporal and spatial changes in regional rainfall erosivity can reveal the formation mechanism and succession process of water and soil loss. This is particularly relevant for ecologically fragile areas, such as the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, a gravity centre model, Hovmoller diagram, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Rescale range analysis, and Daniel's trend test were used to analyse the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of rainfall erosivity on the Tibetan Plateau. The study used 0.25 & DEG; spatial resolution data based on ERA5 correction from 1950-2020, which improved the spatial resolution and extended the time range of rainfall erosivity research on the Tibetan Plateau. The rainfall erosion in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau was found to be severe and gradually decreased from the southeast to northwest. The average gravity centre of rainfall erosivity migrated from the southeast to the northwest. Regarding the time cycle, the average rainfall erosivity of the Tibetan Plateau changed rapidly each year, with an approximately 11-year cycle. Furthermore, the rainfall erosivity in the Tibetan Plateau showed a weak downward trend, which could continue to decrease in the future. Collectively, these results support regional ecological security and can help prepare prevention and control measures.