Does the Rural Land Transfer Promote the Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land in China?

In facing the situation of food security, the issue of the non-grain production of cultivated land (NGPOCL) in China has attracted more and more attention. To clarify whether rural land transfer promotes NGPOCL in China, this study collected provincial panel data from 2015 to 2020, and constructed multiple econometric models to explore the impact of land transfer on the planting structure of cultivated land. It is observed that an increase in land transfer area does not promote but significantly inhibits NGPOCL at the national level. The research conclusion is still valid after the robustness test of replacing the explained and core explanatory variables and solving the endogenous problems. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that the inhibitory effect is more pronounced in areas with better topography, economy, or grain production conditions. The analysis of the moderating effect shows that the diversification of land transfer modes and directions can mitigate this inhibitory effect, while the signing of land transfer contracts does not show a significant regulatory effect. This paper reveals the effect of land transfer on grain cultivation from a macro perspective. Its conclusions may provide policy implications for the optimization of rural land transfer and curbing NGPOCL in China.