Climate change expected to increase yield of spring cereals and reduce yield of winter cereals in the Western Siberian grain belt

Context: Higher latitude regions are likely to benefit from an extended vegetation period driven by climate change. In this regard, Western Siberia is considered a promising area for cereal crop farming in the near and medium-term future up to 2050. In the southern regions of Western Siberia, spring and winter cereals with different physiology and phenology are cultivated. The spatial resolution of existing estimates of climate change show an impact on cereal crops, however, the resolution remains low, impairing coverage of the diversity of cereals cultivated in Western Siberia. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of climate change on the yield of main cereal crops in the Tyumen oblast (Western Siberia, Russia) in the short (2025 - 2030) and medium (2045 - 2050) terms. Methods: The dataset covered the period from 1990 to 2020 and contained time series data on the yield of cereal crops as well as relevant meteorological parameters (mean air temperature, precipitation, snow cover), all grouped by the 22 municipal districts of the Tyumen oblast. Daily meteorological data were obtained from the CMIP6 model-simulation output and were used to develop random effects linear regression models and to make predictions with optimal models. To assess the impact of climatic parameters on the four key stages of cereal growth (germination, tillering, heading, flowering), a series of random effects linear regression models was developed for each type of cereal crop using six different methods of model building. Results: The obtained models predict that the yield of spring grown cereals (barley, oats, spring wheat) would increase by 11.6% & PLUSMN; 1.7% and 10.1% & PLUSMN; 1.7% (mean & PLUSMN; SE), in the short (2025 - 2030) and medium (2045 - 2050) runs as compared to the control period (1990 - 2020). These models predict a decrease in winter grown cereals (rye and winter wheat) yield by 17.1% & PLUSMN; 3.2% in 2025 - 2030 and by 17.7% & PLUSMN; 3.2% in 2045 - 2050. Among the four studied agroecological zones, the largest increase in the yield is predicted in the taiga agro-ecological zone (up to 84.3% & PLUSMN; 5.5% for barley). Conclusions: Cultivation of spring grown cereals adapted to the taiga environment is important for improving grain production rates in Western Siberian regions. Significance: This study offers an example of a new bioinformatics-inspired type of analysis that prepares raw biological data for mechanistic modeling. This type of analysis serves to identify the key explanatory variables, paving the way towards spatially resolved multiscale predictive modelling of agroecosystems.