Meteorological drought migration characteristics based on an improved spatiotemporal structure approach in the Loess Plateau of China

The development of drought has spatial and temporal synchronization. Previous studies usually explore the spatial and temporal evolution of drought separately. Moreover, existing approaches are based on a fixed overlapping area and do not consider the variable drought cluster area during development. This study proposes an improved and simple approach to derive dynamic overlapping area threshold for 3-dimensional droughts extraction. Based on the one monthly Nonparametric Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI), this improved approach was applied for investigating the migration characteristics of meteorological drought events in the Loess Plateau of China. Then, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting model with Shapley additive explanation values were used to quantify the importance of driving factors on the dynamics of drought characteristics. The results showed that: (1) the improved approach has a better performance on identifying prolonged droughts than the method using a fixed overlap area threshold; (2) spatially, meteorological drought events with high severity (DS), long duration (DD), large effected area (DA) and fast migration velocity (DV) mainly occur in the central region; (3) temporally, droughts are expected to aggravate with significantly increased DS and DA which are mainly caused by increased temperature and vegetation; and (4) meteorological droughts have a preferred westward migration direction and three dominant migration paths, which are crucial for local drought prevention and control. The findings of this study provide new perspectives on drought migration characteristics, which are important for the exploration of drought-driven mechanisms, risk assessment and future prediction.