Unveiling the impact mechanism of urban resilience on carbon dioxide emissions of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in China

With the increasingly severe global climate change situation, the construction of low-carbon and resilient cities is expected to be an effective means of accelerating the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. As a major global economic and carbon-emitting power, it is necessary to advocate for China to accelerate the construction of low-carbon and resilient cities. We have formulated a comprehensive methodological framework to appraise the effects of urban resilience (UR) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study first constructs a "social-economic-institutional-ecological-engineering" UR assessment framework. Based on this framework, we establish an evaluation system for the UR of the urban agglomeration to explore the dynamic evolution of its spatial and temporal patterns. And then this study uses the SBM-DEA method that includes undesirable outputs to measure the carbon emission efficiency of the urban agglomeration. Finally, the spatial Durbin model is used to analyze the spatial spillover effects of UR on CO2 emissions, and the mechanism of CO2 emission spatial effects is theoretically explained by introducing geographical laws. The results show that the overall UR level in the region increased from 0.107 in 2000 to 0.318 in 2020, with an average carbon emission efficiency of 0.82, but still at a relatively low level. Moreover, there are significant differences in the regional level, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen and their surrounding cities showing significantly higher levels compared to other cities. Regarding the spillover effects analysis, CO2 emissions exhibit significant spatial spillover effects between cities. Improving UR can reduce urban CO2 emissions, but it may also have negative spillover effects on surrounding cities. This research can provide a new perspective for improving the study of regional CO2 emissions reduction and its influencing mechanisms while also offering important references for accelerating the construction of UR and achieving regional carbon peak targets.