Morning blood pressure surge as a predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension

BackgroundThe prognostic value of ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring (ABPM) is poorly understood in Latin American populations. MethodsA prospective observational study was conducted on 1339 patients with hypertension who underwent 24-h BP monitoring between 2015 and 2019. The incidence of serious adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for potential confounders. Three previously reported morning surge definitions were evaluated for SBP and DBP using different ABPM components: sleep-through morning surge, pre-awakening, and morning night-time difference. ResultsThe mean age was 62 years, 52% were female, 32.8% had dyslipidaemia, 27.2% were smokers, and 7.8% had diabetes. During a median follow-up period of 32 months, 197 MACE occurred. In men, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.84 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-2.49; P < 0.001). The HR increased to 2.03 (95% CI, 1.89-2.17; P < 0.001) with a cut-off value of 35 mmHg for a 10 mmHg increase in sleep-through morning surge. The increased adjusted HR associated with the morning rise persisted for each secondary endpoint, including 21 cardiovascular deaths [HR: 2.70 (95% CI, 2.03-3.60; P < 0.001)], 78 myocardial infarctions [HR: 1.92 (95% CI, 1.72-2.15; P < 0.001)], 24 hospitalisations for heart failure [HR: 1.77 (95% CI, 1.48-2.12; P < 0.001)], 22 strokes [HR: 2.32 (95% CI, 1.85-2.91; P < 0.001)], and 52 atrial fibrillations [HR: 1.94 (95% CI, 1.71-2.20; P < 0.001)]. ConclusionThe morning BP rise was the most important circadian prognostic factor for MACE in patients with hypertension, which deserves more attention.