Future emissions of greenhouse gases, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds from municipal solid waste burning in India

Waste generation projections for the 21st century are important for the investigation of long-term global environmen-tal problems, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with waste management. This paper presents future waste gen-eration and open waste burning projections for India, which are consistent with the scenarios in the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) database. India's waste generation will increase to 547 Tgy-1 and 828 Tgy-1, by 2030 and 2050, respectively, if India's waste generation rates converge to those of developed economies under the fossil fuel based economic growth projections of SSP5. This will increase open waste burning emissions by 140 % and 110 % over 2015 levels by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Business-as-usual projections predict a waste generation of 268 +/- 14 Tgy-1 by 2030 and 356 +/- 34 Tgy-1 by 2050 and elimination of waste burning other than landfill fires by the mid-2040s. Aggressive promotion of source segregation and treatment of biodegradable waste under a sustain-able development scenario (SSP1) can advance this transition despite higher income growth and reduce waste burning from 68 (45-105) Tgy-1 in 2015 to 21-48 Tgy-1 and 2-22 Tgy-1 of waste burning by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The failure of programs targeted at this waste component would result in 31-60 Tgy-1 and 26-108 Tgy-1 of waste burning by 2030 and 2050, respectively. For the SSP5 income trajectory a failure to successfully source segregate and treat biodegradable waste would almost double open waste burning by 2050.