Modelling CO2 emissions and mitigation potential of Northern European shipping

The European maritime shipping sector has a crucial role in reducing CO2 emissions in order to meet the 1.5 degrees C target set in the Paris Agreement. This study uses state-of-the-art maritime emissions modelling to quantify CO2 emissions in the North and Baltic Seas (34,932 t in 2015), and to assess the carbon mitigation potential of E-methanol when life-cycle emissions are taken into consideration. A reduction of 90% is possible by 2040 if all considered ships are replaced by ships powered by E-methanol. The assessment of a carbon budget for shipping in the North Sea and Baltic Sea (0.75 Gg for the period 2011-2011) shows that with a conservative estimate of annual carbon emissions, the budget will be consumed by 2030 if no countermeasures are taken.