A GIS-based crisis management using fuzzy cognitive mapping: PROMETHEE approach (a potential earthquake in Tehran)

The main need of people during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is to have a safe shelter. Since it is not possible to provide suitable places immediately after the occurrence of crises, such as earthquakes, it is necessary to identify safe places for accommodation before such crises occur. Failure to identify effective criteria in locating aid centers and failure to evaluate the effect of each criterion in selecting optimal centers will pose new and irreparable challenges to crisis management in crisis situations. In this research, 18 criteria were collected and evaluated by experts to assess relief centers. Thirty locations, considered by crisis management, were evaluated using geographic information systems. After creating information layers and a matrix of paired comparisons resulting from the evaluation of relief centers in relation to the problem's criteria, the research criteria were weighted. Then, using the fuzzy cognitive mapping method and after analyzing the correlation of the criteria, the effectiveness and influence of each location criterion in the occurrence of a crisis were evaluated, and the weight of each criterion was determined. By applying the weights obtained from the two methods, the relief centers were ranked separately in each stage using the PROMETHEE method. Distance from the fault (17%), distance from worn-out tissue (12%), and distance from educational centers (1%) had the highest and least impact on the ranking of the options, respectively. In addition, criteria such as distance to the river, population, and distance to medical centers have been the most effective criteria compared to others for locating relief centers. Finally, the Borda and Copeland methods were used to combine the ranking results and determine the final priority of options, and the results indicated both similar and different performances of some options in the final ranking. The use of the fuzzy mapping method to calculate the weight of the criteria for ranking relief centers and determining effective and efficient criteria in locating relief centers is one of the contributions of this research. Furthermore, evaluating the effectiveness and value of location criteria in the event of an earthquake crisis is another innovation of this research.