Evolution in unrest processes at Campi Flegrei caldera as inferred from local seismicity

Changes in seismicity with time and location are diagnostic signals for understanding the dynamics of volcanic unrest. We used these signals at the Campi Flegrei caldera, in southern Italy, to investigate how structural changes have determined three styles of unrest since 1982, distinguished by a ground uplift (measured at Pozzuoli, near the centre of the caldera) of 178 cm in 1982-84; a subsidence of 93 cm in 1985-2005; and an uplift of 118 cm between 2005 and November 2023. Double-difference seismic locations and concentrations of seismic energy release have revealed impermeable horizons that correspond to the cap rock and self-sealed base of the geothermal system at depths of 1.5 and 3 km, respectively. Most earthquakes have been shallower than 3 km, consistent with the brittle upper crust being stretched over a zone of pressurization below the geothermal system. The 1982-84 uplift decayed after a major seismic swarm on April 1st, 1984, breached the lower impermeable horizon, which increased the flux of escaping gas and reduced the source pressure. Continued gas escape promoted subsidence until the lower horizon had resealed itself and initiated a new episode of uplift while gas from depth re-accumulated beneath. Compared with 1982-84, a greater proportion of recent seismicity has occurred at shallower depths below the actively degassing fumaroles of Solfatara-Pisciarelli, north-east of Pozzuoli. The associated high seismic b-values, between 1 and 2, are consistent with high fluid pressures and, hence, with locations more favourable to fracturing. Continued uplift may thus persist until fracturing of the shallow crust allows faster rates of gas release and depressurization of the pressure source.