The Impact of Urbanization on the Supply-Demand Relationship of Ecosystem Services in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration

The urbanization process can alter the structure of urban land use and result in variations in urban ecosystem services (ESs). Researching the driving mechanism of multi-level indicators of urbanization on the supply and demand of ESs can enhance our understanding of the ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization. This study investigates the driving mechanisms underlying the relationship between urbanization and the supply-demand dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration (YRMRUA). First, we assessed the variation in the key ESs (food production, carbon storage, and culture service) from 2000 to 2019 at both city and provincial levels. Second, ES demand and the supply-demand index (SDI) were calculated utilizing socioeconomic indicators. The Geographical Detector model was applied to analyze the individual and combined effects of urbanization on the supply and SDI of ESs. The results showed that an increase in areas of supply and demand was unbalanced in the YRMRUA from 2000 to 2019, with a predominant concentration observed in the provincial capital cities. Scale urbanization exhibits the most substantial influence on the SDI, with a q-value of 0.6, while land urbanization exerts the most pronounced effect on ES supply, with a q-value of 0.7. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that the combined effect of urbanization on ESs surpasses the individual effect, with q-values exceeding 0.5. The interaction between scale urbanization and other indicators has the greatest impact on the SDI of carbon storage. Population and economic urbanization exhibit a more substantial impact on food production and cultural service compared to other primary indicators. Simultaneously, the joint effects of secondary indicators between per capita living area and per capita road area have a greater impact on ES supply than other secondary indicators. These findings illustrate that urbanization indicators are not independent of each other, but have a combined effect. Furthermore, the urbanization process in the YRMRUA has exhibited a gradual deceleration, leading to a diminishing influence on ESs. This study can contribute to the comprehension of urbanization and ESs when dealing with the conflict between urban development and ecological sustainability.