Evolution Pattern and Spatial Mismatch of Urban Greenspace and Its Impact Mechanism: Evidence from Parkland of Hunan Province

Planners need to fully understand the quantity of land supply and its matching relationship with population demand, as these are prerequisites for urban greenspace planning. Most papers have focused on single cities and parks, with little attention paid to comparative analysis between multiple cities on a macro scale, ignoring the influence of spatial effects and leading to a lack of basis for regional green infrastructure planning. This paper selected 102 cities in Hunan province as case studies to comprehensively conduct empirical research using the spatial mismatch model and the geographically weighted regression method. The urban parkland in Hunan province are characterized by significant spatial heterogeneity and correlation, and the mismatch between land supply and population demand should not be ignored, with oversupply and undersupply co-existing. The urban parkland and its mismatch with population are influenced by a number of factors, and each factor has a stronger influence on the latter than the former. Different factors vary widely in the nature and intensity of their effects, and the dynamics are more complex. Economic development, financial capacity, and air quality are key factors, with the former having a negative impact and the latter having opposite (positive) effects. We suggest that when the government allocates land resources and targets for urban parks, it should formulate a differentiated allocation plan based on the supply and demand conditions of each city; besides, it should also place emphasis on regional integration and coordination and support mutual cooperation.