Assessing interstate softwood roundwood trade in the southern United States: a gravity trade model approach

Intraregional trade of forest products is a critical component of regional and subregional timber markets in terms of supply chain planning and locating forest product manufacturing facilities. Based on a gravity trade model, we evaluated the various factors driving the interstate flows of softwood sawlog and roundwood pulpwood in the 13 southern US states: AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, and VA. Biennial state-level panel data from 2011 to 2019 in 13 southern states were employed to estimate empirical sawlog and pulpwood trade models. The results suggest that state gross domestic product (GDP) of importing states, exporter and importer production, importer consumption, the distance between the trading partners, and the electronic logging device mandate are influential factors of softwood sawlog trade between the states. Similarly, state GDP, exporter pulpwood production, importer consumption, the distance between the trading partners, delivered timber prices, and pellet mill capacity in each state are found to be significant determinants of softwood pulpwood trade between the partners across the state borderlines. The findings provide forest managers and policy makers with additional insights on the growing bilateral timber trade dynamics in regional and subregional markets in the southern United States.