Preoperative CT features to predict risk stratification of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

Purpose To investigate whether preoperative CT features can be used to predict risk stratification of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).Methods The 168 patients with pathologically confirmed NMIBC who underwent preoperative CT urography were retrospectively analyzed and were divided into training (n = 117) and testing (n = 51) sets. According to the European Association of Urology Guidelines, patients were classified into low-risk (n = 50), medium-risk (n = 23), and high-risk (n = 95) groups. A random over-sample was performed to handle the offset caused by the unbalanced groups. We measured some CT features that may help stratify which for modeling were determined using an F-test-based feature selection with a tenfold cross-validation procedure, and the Gaussian Naive Bayes model was trained on the entire training set. In the testing set, the performance of the model was evaluated.Results The selected CT features were the maximum and the minimum diameter of the largest tumor, whether the largest tumor is located at the trigone, and tumor number. In the testing set, the model reached a macro- and micro- AUC of 0.783 and 0.745 with an accuracy of 0.529. As for the one-vs-rest problem, the model was most effective in identifying low-risk individuals, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.870, 0.647, 1.000, and 0.438, respectively; the medium-risk group reached 0.814, 0.882, 0.250, and 0.936, respectively; the identification of the high-risk group was harder, going 0.665, 0.529, 0.250, and 0.870, respectively.Conclusion It is feasible to predict the risk stratification of NMIBC using preoperative CT features.