A modular framework for a dynamic residential building stock model with energy retrofit forecasts

Building retrofits are strongly dependent on the individual refurbishment/rehabilitation cycles of buildings. In order to achieve the targeted climate goals for the building sector, it is necessary to make the best possible use of refurbishment opportunities for energy retrofits. Furthermore, it must be considered that the younger the building, the lower the potential for energy savings. The most challenging, yet required, energy retrofits are all yet to come. Given the importance of the refurbishment cycle, the question arises as to what the theoretical refurbishment rate is, what the actual energy retrofit rate is, and what it needs to be in order to meet the climate targets for the residential building stock. The aim of this paper is to model the evolution of the size and retrofit status of national building stocks. This is to be done against the background of the deviation from the actual and theoretical refurbishment cycle. Using current statistics and the past development of the German residential building stock, central parameters like living space, new construction, deconstruction, and the retrofit rate are modeled endogenously. For the latter, influences of economic conditions are implemented through an exogenously set black box variable. The retrofit rate represents a deep energy retrofit and thus allows an easy connection of the model with energy parameters for building classes defined in the web database TABULA for 20 European countries. The results are of relevance for modeling the energy efficiency status of the building stock and deriving suitable conditions for increasing retrofit rates also in other countries. The results show that increasing the energy retrofit rates to 2%/a or more is largely unrealistic. Instead, the focus should be on weak points, especially where short-term savings are concerned. This applies in particular to facades, basement ceilings, and heating systems as well as the efficient use of energy in buildings.