The air pollution-fertility relationship: evidence from China

被引:0
|
作者
Huang, Shuo [1 ]
Wu, Jun [2 ,5 ]
He, Mike [3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Columbia Univ, Grad Sch Arts & Sci, Dept Econ, New York, NY USA
[2] Shanghai Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Finance, Shanghai, Peoples R China
[3] Icahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Dept Environm Med & Publ Hlth, New York, NY USA
[4] Columbia Univ, Inst Social & Econ Res & Policy, Quantitat Methods Social Sci, New York, NY USA
[5] Shanghai Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Finance, 1900 Wenxiang Rd, Shanghai 201620, Peoples R China
关键词
Air pollution; fertility; China; birth rate; PM2.5; TRAFFIC CONGESTION; INFANT-MORTALITY; HEALTH EVIDENCE; FINE PARTICLES; UNITED-STATES; EXPOSURE; IMPACT; RESTRICTIONS; ASSOCIATION; INTENTIONS;
D O I
10.1080/00036846.2024.2331028
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This study investigates the link between air pollution and fertility. We developed a theoretical model of fertility choice in which air pollution affects both reproductive capacity and fertility intention. The model predicts that air pollution decreases fertility and that the negative effect of air pollution on the fertility rate varies across regions with different fertility restrictions and intentions. We use panel data from Chinese cities to empirically investigate the impact of air pollution on fertility and address the potential endogeneity problem by employing three identification strategies: fixed effects, lagged dependent variables, and instrumental variables. The point estimate implies that a one-standard-deviation increase in the 5-year average PM2.5 exposure (18 mu g/m(3)) leads to a 0.417-standard-deviation decrease in the birth rate (1.19 parts per thousand). Moreover, the negative effect of air pollution on fertility is weaker when the one-child policy is relaxed and is stronger in regions with higher education levels and higher housing prices, suggesting that air pollution decreases fertility through both the biological channel and the intention channel.
引用
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页数:17
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