Distribution characteristics and influencing factors of household consumption carbon emissions in China from a spatial perspective

Household consumption carbon emissions (HCCEs) have become the main growth point of China's carbon emissions in the future. It is important to investigate the factors affecting the demand-side carbon emissions in order to find the accurate entry point of emission reduction and achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Different from previous studies, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of provincial HCCEs in China from a spatial perspective by using the Theil index and spatial auto-correlation and explored the key influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of HCCEs in different regions by using an econometric model. The results of the study showed that: (1) Per capita HCCEs increased by 11.90% annually, and the eastern region > northeastern region > western region > central region. (2) There were regional differences in per capita HCCEs, but the decrease was significant at 40.32%. (3) The spatial agglomeration effect of per capita HCCEs was significant, and the hot spots were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas. (4) From the national level, every 1% increase in residents' consumption power would increase HCCEs by 2.489%. Which was the main factor for the growth of HCCEs, while the increase in fixed asset investment would restrain HCCEs. At the regional level, the change in population size significantly increased the HCCEs in the eastern and central regions. While for the western region, a 1% increase in population would reduce the HCCEs by 0.542%. For the eastern and central regions, the degree of aging and the consumption structure of residents could suppress regional HCCEs. However, the consumption structure of residents drove the growth of HCCEs in the western region. For the Northeast region, residents' consumption capacity and cooling degree days were the main factors for the growth of residents' consumption, while fixed asset investment could inhibit the growth of HCCEs.