Debris Collision Risk Analysis Following Simulated Cislunar Spacecraft Explosions

This research simulates spacecraft explosions in cislunar space and analyzes the resulting risk to other notional spacecraft. Three case studies are considered, which include simulations of spacecraft explosions during Earth-moon Hohmann transfers, along the manifold of the L1 Earth-moon Lagrange point, and at the stable L4 and L5 Earth-moon Lagrange points. Debris from the explosions is propagated using a four-body dynamical model that incorporates the gravitational forces of the Earth, moon, and sun. Finally, the risk to nearby cislunar spacecraft is quantified using two different models for the vulnerability of spacecraft to debris, which include a logistic vulnerability model that incorporates only debris particle mass and a ballistic limit vulnerability model that incorporates both particle mass and velocity. The results from each model are compared to evaluate their application to cislunar debris scenarios. The results of this study showed potential debris hazards to spacecraft near Earth from a mishap during an Earth-moon transfer and hazard probabilities to nearby cislunar spacecraft on the order of 10-8% from Lagrange point mishaps. Overall, research into cislunar debris propagation enhances operational planning outside the traditional near-Earth paradigm of spacecraft mission operations and increases understanding of the debris-related consequences of mishaps within this orbital regime.