Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics

被引:0
|
作者
Murayama, Hiroaki [1 ,2 ]
Endo, Akira [3 ,4 ,5 ,6 ,7 ]
Yonekura, Shouto [2 ]
机构
[1] Int Univ Hlth & Welf, Sch Med, Narita, Japan
[2] Chiba Univ, Grad Sch Social Sci, Chiba, Japan
[3] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England
[4] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England
[5] Nagasaki Univ, Sch Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nagasaki, Japan
[6] Natl Univ Singapore, Saw Swee Hock Sch Publ Hlth, Singapore, Singapore
[7] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England
基金
日本科学技术振兴机构; 日本学术振兴会;
关键词
Waning vaccine effectiveness; Population-level surveillance data; Multi-pathogen; Bayesian inference; COVID-19; TRANSMISSION; INFECTION;
D O I
10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100726
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
Monitoring time-varying vaccine effectiveness (e.g., due to waning of immunity and the emergence of novel variants) provides crucial information for outbreak control. Existing studies of time-varying vaccine effectiveness have used individual-level data, most importantly dates of vaccination and variant classification, which are often not available in a timely manner or from a wide range of population groups. We present a novel Bayesian framework for estimating the waning of variant-specific vaccine effectiveness in the presence of multi-variant circulation from population-level surveillance data. Applications to simulated outbreaks and the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan are also presented. Our results show that variant-specific waning vaccine effectiveness estimated from population-level surveillance data could approximately reproduce the estimates from previous test-negative design studies, allowing for rapid, if crude, assessment of the epidemic situation before fine-scale studies are made available.
引用
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页数:9
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